Blog Title: Just Charts

Satyam, Intel, Alcoa.....

7.1 - 2009

If you read bloomberg news during today, flow was like directly from hell.

Yesterday it was reported also german business man suiciside who participated with brilliant investment bankers who widely sold idea to short WV, you might remember it rockted up several hundred percents after porchse took a stake.

Oil made a hard correction today, down over -10%. We had nice rally, I executed today my DRYS swing, it was actually down allready -10% before I opened US account, but it was up allready over 35% since picking, I think I am going to step a side for a few days and try to catch idea where we are going because as market takes over -3% downside movements, which is bigger than any reactionary upwave movement at so far there´s chance A=B=C meaning similiar size could of IV could be met allready. I don´t think C is finished yet, but it´s also possible it is. After all, we did rally a real lot allready with terrible news for several months, so corrections meanwhile are not surprizes. DRYS alone is more than tripled allready!

I was trying to figure out some currency market setups today, but at least now I am out still completely out of blue. 42.67 $ is 50% fib retracement for oil and that´s where it trades now, could be reversal point. I don´t personally like very much IV´s, that´s why a I am bit lazy with scanning stocks or even participating to the market.

Either the way, everyone who trade any IV waves are allways playing with fire in, it will be only matter of time when new impulse achieves us to lead down. for the same reason we do not have bullish patterns much available, just zigzag´s or reactionary upwaves - we´re living a bit boring times, but my best guess is that C of IV is still under progress - 940 top of it sounds a bit short for it.

There seems to be a real lot of Armstrong PHI model discussion going on nowdays and for good reason because this market has been terrifying exactly following his Head&Shoulder Charts, more terrifying is also his acccurate timing - this is another view for Elliott Wave Kontratieff and Benner Cycle theory approach. It´s interesting Armstrong study done with very young age has not been more analyzed by fib & ew theorists even it´s been there for years even with accurate dates.

You can read Armstrong theory pinpoints via ContraHour site, I suggest you spent some time with it, specially if you´re familiar with kontratieff & benner´s cycle theory>>>

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html

Happy New Year 2009

5.1 - 2009

Christmas is over, holiday is over, new year party is over - god damn, it´s hard to come back.

Looks alike IV / C / Complex ZigZag upwave started to progress as expected it to do for January. I have not much to add, everything is pretty much said allready on december - I do swing this month and as mentioned most bullish with Oil & Energy and I do have DIG calls and particularly smaller size stocks selection. I do avoid Dow components as January is generally best time for more smaller size stocks. Wherether you look between individual stocks you see plenty of IV bottom patterns which are ready to change cource.

Could take a week or two before I understand what´s has happened, since I am still completely out of blue after landing. Hopefully SPX will do a little more active participate during C upwave progress, last 2 months were indeed very passive one taking extreme deep retracements in every and each corner. I do keep SPX 1100 as fare target, then very ugly spring can come with V downside impulse.

SPX 875.75

23.12 - 2008

Well, at so far it went up to 878 which is also 23.6% resistance. Then corrected 78.6% with expanding diagonal at 872 and now trying to hit 878 top again.

Nice small size rally or start of it, but so far it´s only technical bounce - we need to break this 23.6% fib soon to go more and it looks alike roof now. If we don´t breake this now, 50 % and/or 61.8% lows might be under work with 2 hours data chart and I am afraid they might. I am still a bit skeptical with this "wedge" pattern. Perhaps it´s time to lock up profits, leave the market and go to finish X-mas shopping project - it´s very boring ZigZag anyway. One minute SPX futures seems to build kind of bearish HS pattern now also. I do believe market willl build better long setup at some stage for / in January, but that entry setup we might need to wait.

Btw. did you noticed it was bearish HS actually SPX made in the very top of this diagonal, that one came down yesterday from right shoulder.

Enjoy your Holiday Season !

61.8% broken

At 859-863.

It didn´t hold, trades now at 854 (could be overthrow). SPX 850 (848) is next support. This might be a bit risky bet that we´re placing zigzag bottom and NOT placing any IV yet, but I´ll buy some from this 850-860 road to accept this risk for swing, targeting for january.

SPX, Double (or triple) ZigZag

22.12 - 2008

Lazy X-mas ZigZag Path & Chart. It looks pretty passive one, 61.8% lower point might come later today, 50% retracements mostly comes with more simple A-B-C formats.

Alternate or bigger view would be my B wave down as mentioned in previous post, but this could fill the same pattern just meaning more complex future - just with a different elliott wave view - when charting this 874 got broken allready to the downside (slightly), but mentioned waves could be the next upwaves after correction is down. Chart covers 30 minutes StockData.

(The Entire Upleg from SPX 7xx level could come as very complex ZigZag).

C Up
Z Up
X Up

Season Greetings

2009

It´s time to wish season greetings.

As investment banks tends to give targets - I´ll join the the group. Below is some targets I expect to see during first half of 2009. My best call for 2008 (plenty of them) was indeed oil & energy shorting roads from all the they way down from the very top covering allmost 78 individual oil charts for shorting, but I didn´t expect it to go below 50$ per barrell so easily but wasn´t bullish either, at least.

SPX expanded flat upwave IV Target 1080-1100 (winter 2009)
SPX expanded flat downwave V Target 380 (spring 2009)

For smaller timeframe I believe SPX might have now A wave of IV placed. If that´s the case B wave down might be coming (chart in previous post), but then C wave up again should be under progress to complete IV upwave.

(For SPX this is most simple A-B-C view one can possible see, but there´s much more IV wave scenarios exist, it could come even as double-tree or triple-tree for instance which would mean we do zigzag´s like past month for much, much longer between current SPX 700 bottom to SPX 1100).

Most commodites I expect start to get some passive reactionary wave uproads for january. Oil euro price is increasing allready, while dollar price has been more down. Metals likely will follow soon (sink, copper, iron, steel, nickel....), but likely all impulses down not seen yet as they tends to move with SPX where economy pinpoints.

Oil wave IV 78 $
Oil wave V 21 $ - (Longer term bullish with it up to the 300 $ (2011-2013))

I also expect to see British Pound to reach 1/1 paritet with Euro. Russian ruple will correct down 17-27%.

With printing money Eur-Usd target 2 .2700, long term view remains extremely bearish, but with SPX view it might miss one leg to touch 1.2100

Merry Christmas,

Market Geometry

Btw. Logo in picture belongs to beautifull US boat builder who makes boats also looks alike boats.


http://www.hinckleyyachts.com/

German Dax

I checked this weird wedge SPX have as chart below pinpoints, DAX have exactly the same, but these does not fit for normal wave structure, there´s no single impulse inside on there. I suppose A wave can build this kind of diagonal, but wedge is wrong term in this case and EW does not approval this kind of pattern to be normal shorting road. It will be interesting how it´s going to solve itself with 2 hours data it might lead us for next week.

Amazing FX movements keeps coming, EuroDollar now down over 700 pips in 2 days after hitting head to the .618% retracement at 1.4720. Never underestima power of golden touch....there´s so many things happening now in this indursty; Japan zirp, US zirp, Norwegian rate cut of 1.75% from this week!, Russian ruple freefall, Polish Zloty, British Pound freefall, Swedish Kronor fall....likely next zirp will be Euro on next year.

StockMarket + EuroDollar

19.12 - 2008

Pretty interesting thing started to happen actually, just when it just looked alike too boring. Firstly, SPX still keeping offering these bear diagonal shorting setups time after time - which are my favorite one´s to drop down, even they could be opposite of main direction movements I like them as they come´s down reasonable faster that uproads, besides this last one was also doubletop.

They usually allways corrects 50% as did this one too, then they allways offer some long reversals.

More interesting was certainly Eur-Usd road which I pretty much missed, traded perhaps maximum 300 pips out from there, 61.8% retracement from 1.600 gave 1.4720 and today 500 pips correction for it, I think this is guinness record for one day movement. If you did swing these wave or one of them, you´re made a small fortune. So it was yesterday 500 pips movement to the other direction pretty extreme - certainly nice volatility in FX market !

However, first and bigger SPX diagonal gives some reason to stay alerted. There´s risk exist, this completed pattern could be one big "A" wave pattern. Unfortunately complete pattern is too complex to fit for waves for me, but at least very last part of double top looks mini size of bearish HS also and it´s corrected as did smaller wedge. What about this bigger one then ?

1.4700

Approximately is 61.8% retracement for EuroDollar from 1.600.

Seems it finally offered some more sizable resistance.

Zirp rally

C/4 started to progress as expected. I traded break-out 38.2% with EuroDollar with Fed, but shorted it today as my 50% (1.4200) was met. Macd is falling very deeply while price is more conservative to come down (100 - 150 pips at so far) with it. This is likely another sign that main trend with eurodollar is other direction meaning weaker dollar - could come zigzag day today or even rest of the week. Commodites should start following dollar later also, getting stronger. Once this eurodollar 50% level will get breaken, stocks can run more.

I am offline from the marketplace most of december.

0 % - what then ?

24 hours before FED will do rate cut and we´re starting to reach that zero (or soon negative) yield, I checked eur-usd and spx charts plus some others. My previous SPX came perfect meeting 50% / 830 points and taking reversal from there. It also corrected today again 50% from this last up movement.

1.3734 is 38.2% fib retracement for EuroDollar, this comes from all the way from 1.600 - so, it´s not easy to get breake it - once and if it occures 1.4172 is 50% for it. Euro got that rally during last 6 session as market priced FED rate cut.

Most big names like Ebay, Intel, Cisco, Apple, Juniper, stands right below simple moving average 50 days line.

None offers any clear patterns in any assetts group to give real power of direction, this is very usual situation with IV waves - charts usually looks so weird as they can, only ocsillators promise any life for them if any but patterns are ozzy-zones. IV waves are slow and painfull process as time has proved at so far, you can get that SPX 1000 - it´s just so slow & boring process to reach it.

So, I really believe we work IV waves, a lot of them now - nothing else (waves) can´t be this painfinull, slow and boring process. If that´s the case then C upwave can come, but I don´t like very much idea of buying.

As Mr. Spielberg lost a fortune also with that Ponzi sceme I got a funny idea when I was browsing new James Bond scemes because I remembered it was Spielberg who actually directed WallStreet Movie telling about greed, greed is good etc.......kind of legend movie of it times, perhaps we will see another movie some day telling about this latest issue some day. Certainly terrible thing, but with Kontratieff 2009 winter - be prepared for more bad news. After all It´s more than surprize that hedgefund indursty has not seen more windfalls at so far, I thought much more of them would be dropped off from the marketplace with Oil correction.

As low interest rate were one of the main reason why we got this pubble at first stage, now they try the same game again. Should be interesting how this ends some day, scary, but it starts to sounds like a japan way. There´s one indursty which rock´s now and that´s US biggest export indursty > Gov Bonds. It´s estimated now US budget deficit will be doubled during 2009.

None of the political or cultural statement done in here, just were a bit funny mode before X-mas as market is just far too boring for me now to follow or trade, besides I missed that eur-usd runaway.

SPX

10.12 - 2008, US Market Closed

Unfortunately, I accidently just noticed 60 minutes data pattern looks very much of it > Bear Diagonal...

If it´s going to retrace, size is 80 points. SPX 808 is 61.8% retracement for this pattern. 830 is 50%.

Very different view what I been looking at so far as A-B-C reactionary upwave, but if you look this particular shot again, it could be easily be also fully impulse which has ran it´s cource allready. W3 could fit previous top, as well as then a-b-c with W4 down, and finally last W5 up.

SP-500 - Some StockPatterns + Elliott Wave Projections

7.12 - 2008

I need to confess your life who try to hold this market and ride up with it is not comfortable task, even it looks alike 718 offered that bottom for us, at least for now - because each waves and each up movements takes so deep retracements it allmost looks alike market is not going anywhere while terrible macro fundamendals slash market down seriouslytime after times. Last monday market bottom was 814 with SPX, 5 days later as this friday it was 817. That´s 3 points up progress in 5 days holding most uncomfortable & unpleasant riskparameter called time.

For traders this is paradise, deeper the movements are more clear they comes as there´s much less noise. Even, it´s not easy task to fill specific waves for them, patterns and fibs still works, market simple getting from very oversold to very overbought several times per week offering multiple entry and exit points for both directions - if you patient enough to wait your turn to make a new entry, should not be too difficult.

Here´s a few charts for the new week or next 2 weeks ahead, but not subminuette wave charts, so, these does not telling anything about tomorrow. If mainforce (wave) C comes valid now, "speed" and overall wave progress could come slightly better to fullfill IV upwave, but I would not certainly be surprized if this deep retracements seen at so far keep coming every day and every week, besides I never hold&swing any any IV waves - it´s one of the most boring trading wave you can get, but still doing some progress at this time because our impulses down were so huge one´s during the year.

Enjoy your trading, before Santa will come and watch carefully every bigger 50% retracements market offers - they usually offers reversal points, even when overlap occures.

I have no idea what is this very last impulse wave we got on friday, it kicked in after 50% retracement was met, just traded it based for my 15 minutes macd signal as it looked alike a-b-c also, but it ran to the 875 area and over again, which is massive bearish HS right shoulder (see my older post charts). If market leaves this pattern now, perhaps at this time we could be lucky and it retraced allready, but at so far this pattern has been one of the best shorting setup in all timeframs and it appears often also. If it´s part of the right shoulder, we have very serious troubles ahead. Which is the case, we´ll see on next week, but my best guess is as mentioned in charts we work with C upwave, but I have absolute zero positions to hold it. Waiting another signal & retracement from market, besides this very last powerfull upwave should easily retrace also, even it looks alike impulse wave.

Btw. one nice thing to have a blog is that peoble usually post if anything interesting new websites hit the area. Usually they´re don´t anything interesting or unique, but someone might like this one - if you don´t have any financial software for most basic tasks stock scanning you might like to test this>

http://www.dojispace.com/

No register requirement either, seems to work just like that. Webmaster seems to forget fill shorting scanning plus fibonacci issues also - the most important thing which works in this business like a train, but after all - for quick very basic scanning if you´re happy enough with daily signal data seems to be fare enough.

Well,

That was quick ! It went to 44,50 $, then freefall again ;)

We´ll see if Merrill Lynch is correct and Oil will reach 25 $ on next year ! Hugo Chavez will have pretty tough times ahead as well as Mr. Putin with that price!

Enjoy your weekend, if US market will offer something interesting today when it opens, I might come with chart - if not, enjoy your weekend!

European Morning

5.12-2008

TrailingStop Covered EuroDollar short position at 1.2745 by over night. No clear setup enough for re-consider, but I think it´s at zigzag mode.

Thank You Eur-Usd. We really need to see crude oil reversal soon, it cannot fall without reversals at all placed. 43 $ plus those pennis sounds amazing price. 15 Minute macd has done allready pretty nice rollover, I think today could be Oil bullish day.

Another Entry

US market closed. Same old, same old - usually when you do short major size fibonacci with EuroDollar first one allways blows out with stoploss, but I allways make new entry and certainly it finally started to fall, even needed to wait allmost all day with it as 1.2800 offered some shorter timeframe support before it was broken.

SPX bearish Head&Shoulder chart I mentiond somewhere in lower posts department was placed today, market build that right shoulder at 875, twice actually making doubletop for it while 15 minutes macd started to fall in last 24 hours. I don´t know if this HS pattern will be under progress now, but if it is, we will go much deeper on next week as it´s very large pattern at this time.

SPX 837 is .618% fib support for this new downwave, one snapback movement from there likely ahead, but then the rest should follow - I´ll keep the same Eur-Usd short position by overnight. Haven´t decided exactly yet where to cover it.

EuroDollar

Eur-Usd, going short once and if target price will be reached. Might be that car makers will get their money and bull is coming, but I allways short 50% retracements.

EuroYen

4.12 - 2008 Morning, it seems EuroYen has been falling more during rest of the night even more, so, I suppose this was true bear diagonal (even it looked a bit weird). I removed my stops at this morning to 117.50 level, it if breakes it upside - profits taken home in there, if it falls I´ll let it fall - as it looks alike after all countries made a rate cut.

Thank You EuroYen !!!!!!!!!!

EuroYen

4.12 - 2008

Asian night, shorted EuroYen at 118,72 as it build so beautifull bear diagonal and bear HS above of it - hopefully someone on there is with me with this one, but perhaps this might build something bigger later on, if we get that 50 % we could have inverse HS - which would be extremely bullish pattern. Chrisis, I love this currency paritet (it track´s also stockmarket very closely). Simple a-b-c down, first a down, then b wave up from .618, then c wave down....

Still Expanding

3.12 - 2008

Noap, no crash, just average down, then up again - higher. Pretty deep retracements inside of this triangle what every upmovement takes. Perhaps, this is it. We start getting expanding triangle channel as upwave, because I am not coming with you - I am going to subdivide to EuroYen trading for this month.

Enjoy, but take care that you won´t be there when final E will be placed, when it´s placed I will be there then ;). I think VIX is the best target to EW chart now, because it does have a fully impulse which could correct A-B-C down. Sorry, I just don´t like non impulsive expanding channels, if Oil will join to the club, then I might re-consider, but at so far it´s still landing, even 50 $ didn´t offer much support for it.

SPX-500 - Elliott Wave Count

3.12 - 2008


I know many expext and hope market to take snapback rally for Christmas for SPX 1000 or even to the better side as Vix gave extreme bearish signals reaching allmost one hundred. We have alternates and we could see A-B-C up wave as as scenario to fullfill IV for SPX1000, but as monday sold down relatively strongly & violently I started to gave today another look for it, after all it was just one of these same bearish HS patterns which EuroYen and EuroDollar has also recently offered quite often, but pretty strong - It argues it have to be impulse wave ?

After stockmarket crashed at this monday market took then 50% correction and bought immediately when US closed, it was SPX 814. It make it twice creating doublebottom again on the next day ie. today as 817 and once again market bought it and once again it was HS pattern which dropped market to this level. Then with full impulse wave making relative strong snapback rally for SPX 850 level. More important information however was 50% level itself, because this fib retracement has been in the most strong short and long setup for this market for decades in all wave time formats starting from subminuettes all the way up.

So, here it is, if this comes true - Houston, we have a serious problem if I am right this one. Likely I will update this one tomorrow or at least before ECB will release ratecut on thursday - hopefully, FX world express more clear setup just before. All the other countries like UK and Australia cut allready 0.75 points and that´s likely what ECB will do as well, but chart might want to tell us something before that happens.

So, if you see crash tomorrow, start looking these charts - if you won´t see any crash, then you can still look at these charts and make a point > nice charts, but wrong call.

Oscilllators are however relatively neutral in all timeframes, not extreme setups or support available from there. Either the case, I feel this expanding triangle to be very interesting to see how it´s going to solve itself - you don´t see it often with SPX ! However, after waves, we have soon (again) one bearish HS as one chart below pinpoints. Timeframes with charts below are down from 2 hours to 15 minutes.

99 % of the hard pro technical folks are bullish now in this indursty, but there´s also very simple guideline of the EW theory I just created, the side which ran faster is usually correct and with this one I mean this monday plunge. Do you really think most strong downside day of the multimonth plunge is end of this when it´s not even new low - don´t know, but one need pretty good imagination if you try to fit that for B wave for example...let´s hope it´s more clear tomorrow - shall we....

Art and Money

22.11 - 2008

Saturday ChartArt & Elliott Wave Session with SP-500 Index.

(60 Minutes and 15 Minutes Charts). Possible bottom approaching. With VIX Macd is falling allready and not following the price up. Either the case, I assume we take both of those IV´s now (one of them is down and another is up based for charts below, but then the rest should follow as final wave V down and this is could be ready for more steady bounce (not just a one day)).

Complex Wave 4

20.11 - 2008

Market has been up and down all week, at the end of day not so serious new lower lows found yet while SPX keep up and running between 800-900 road despite the negative performance. Related for lower post I believe this W4 is complex one, trying to flll it, but these waves are not easy to follow, likely it´s either double to triple. When it´s finished the rest down should follow. If more clear setup will come, I will post shots for it. Could be that market want to close this month derivatives first before it´s will give free road to go.

Besides of that I have birthday today & going pub, market cannot take serious progress without me (I hope).

SPX, My Kamikaze - Sepaku Wave is here ?

Sunday, 16.11 - 2008

Please visualize alternate scenario as A-B-C because next movement will be massive. Either the case, after skewed triangle was executed down last friday it was either B wave meaning market started to work with corrective C wave. This is bullish scenario after C would be fully retraced (likely .618%), but if we just entered to the new impulse wave SPX will find it´s way below 800 very quickly (next week).

If I have time on next week I´ll post additional charts for this setup (if they changes middle of the day, likely I don´t have time to update), oscillators + fibs will confirm when waves changes and I certainly will trade these. Eur-Usd build skewed (overlapped) bearish triangle on friday in one minute chart confirmed that we will subdive and certainly we did.

18 Days Minute Chart of Eur-Usd

Nice wave IV rally. Ugh, hard day behind for me, my stoploss occured when SPX 838 was broken with intratrade, then I also missed the ultimate bottom too, but I understood very quickly when SPX started to rally back that this could come huge now, thanx very much again to eurodollar charts, fixed damaged + made decent profit going long with it 3 times.

It´s a bit difficult to post setups as they come and go, 20-40 pips movement are very nice to do, not too fast running, but a few hours swings. Created chart below just now, there should be at least one shorting setup also meaning possibe wave 1 of 4 at least with 61.8%. It could breake later, but they never go directly throw in first drive. SPX chart is very similiar, likely. Note that this is only last part of impulse finished today, this IV wave can come huge (or then not) - either the case, it´s only IV for me.

Btw this complete chart is exactly similiar as august stockmarket rally day had.

What do trade, here´s my favorite one´s (which I allways confirm with oscillators plus fibs>